Hello Traders!

Before I get to this week’s FX Analysis, I want to take a moment to explain the next transition of my life… and the implications it’ll have on the newsletter, my sites and my youtube channel.

As you may or may not recall, I was accepted into the Masters program for Economics at UofT. The program officially starts on Sept 10th, 2012. However, there is a compulsory 3 week intensive math/stats review prior to the start of the semester. This review starts on Monday (Aug 20th), it’s intensive because it’s runs for 6 hours each day. Also because most people took calculus and stats early on in their undergrad (i.e. 3-4 years ago), so I don’t really remember much.

I haven’t had time to review this summer due to various other commitments in my life. Here’s a brief recap for those of you that don’t watch my youtube videos:

  • Ongoing: Packing up everything in the house prepping for a move
  • Almost done: Packing up and liquidating the remaining inventory from my home business. I’m just a few days away from getting rid of it all, I already finished negotiating with my buyers/dealers etc. They just have to arrange a suitable date to pick up the inventory.
  • Teaching Assistant: As always, I’m usually a TA every semester. This summer was no exception and since I didn’t have courses, they gave me more hours which allowed me to teach two courses instead of one. It’s currently final exam season, so far I already finished marking for one course. The other course exam is tonight (Aug 18th, 7-10pm) which means I have to finish marking all the exams tomorrow (Aug 19th) prior to the start of my math/stat review on Mon (Aug 20th).

The above didn’t give me much room to trade but as you’ll recall, I did trade from time to time. I’ve attached 2 screenshots of my 24Option account showing the trades I made since June 26th (the day after my last ‘Live Trade’ post). For those that have seen my trades in the past, I normally do excel spreadsheet with comments and annotated charts but I don’t have them. I just made these trades randomly when I had time to login during the past couple months so I wasn’t fully documenting it all. So I apologize if the screenshot is “teasing” you compared to what I normally post for trade transparency but I figured a screenshot would be best to prove that I haven’t been actively trading.

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Moving forwards…

I will be taking a leave of absence for the duration of my math/stats review. During this time, I will not be doing any FX Weekly Analysis, as you’ll see below, the upcoming 3 weeks have dashes inside them indicating the lack of forecasts. Since the math/stats review runs 6 hours everyday, I doubt I’ll be trading… although in the past, it’s usually when I study that I feel the urge to procrastinate and trade instead. Lastly,  given that I have more subscribers on youtube than I do on the newsletter/blog, I prioritize my youtube videos above everything else. Thus, if I have time (and that’s a big IF) then I will try to produce a few videos over the span of the next 3 weeks.

Once the math/stats review ends and the semester officially starts, I will have more time to spare and will resume the normal schedule unless something else happens in my life. The reason being is because I opted for part-time studies instead of full-time. Given my background in economics in combination with what I’ve learned in finance, I really don’t think the job market is ready for me. Plus, the Canadian housing market is about to crash soon as well so I doubt things are going to be good in Canada for the next couple years. Thus, I want to delay my graduation for as long as possible.

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That’s it about my life, let’s get on with this week’s FX Analysis.

Overall, a weird week yet again and as noted above, I’m not making forecasts for the next 3 weeks, so there won’t be any commentary. Just count 18 daily candles and I’ll be back before you know it. Thus, I drew the projected path on the daily chart instead of the H4 chart since this will last longer (I hope).

Monthly Chart

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

H4 Chart

Commentary / Technical Forecasts

As noted above, the projected paths are drawn on the daily chart as this is where I see the markets going in the next couple weeks. Couple things to point out, ascending triangle on GBP/USD H4 chart, symmetrical triangle on EUR/USD H4 chart, AUD/USD at the edge of the upward channel and I have nothing to comment on the USD/CAD.

I shall now take my leave until Sept 8, 2012…

Good Luck! Trade Safe, Patiently and Controlled!

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