Welcome back to another week of FX Analysis!
Commentary / Technical Forecasts
USD/CAD: Long term – not sure | Short term – up
- From last week: “… or break upwards since price already punctured the downward channel as mentioned last week.“
- Although price is temporarily stopped by the weekly trend lines, I can see price continuing to move upwards due to the bullish flag on the H4 chart.
- Based on the weekly candle alone, I’m almost tempted to change the long term forecast to up but the month isn’t over yet, so anything can happen in the next 10 days.
- If price manages to break the weekly trend line and thus, cause a breakout from the bullish flag, price can go up significantly (targeting 1.06 region).
AUD/USD: Long term – not sure | Short term – down
- From last week: “… or break downwards (if the “trend” of bouncing between 1.062 to 1.016 holds).“
- Although price is temporarily stopped by the monthly trend line (NOTE: This is only seen on the Monthly and Weekly charts, it’s not seen on the Daily or H4 charts due to the “shift” in trend lines from zooming in), I can see price continuing to move downwards due to the bearish flag on the H4 chart.
- Based on the weekly candle alone, I’m almost tempted to change the long term forecast to down but the month isn’t over yet, so anything can happen in the next 10 days.
- If price manages to break the monthly trend line and thus, cause a breakout from the bearish flag, price can go down significantly (targeting 0.96 region).
EUR/USD: Long term – down | Short term – not sure
- From last week: ” Price still has to break some resistance levels before moving upwards. So I can see price consolidating this week within a range.“
- Although not a popular pattern formation, there’s currently a diamond pattern formation on the H4 chart. So for those of you that don’t know of this pattern, I hope you start recognizing it from now on.
- Technically speaking, this can be considered a bearish diamond since it’s positioned at the top of a (short term) uptrend.
- This basically translates to a higher probability of price breaking downwards, which would be in line with my long term forecast.
GBP/USD: Long term – down | Short term – not sure
- From previous weeks: “The short term uptrend will be short lived if history repeats itself, take a look at the 2 circles on the monthly chart. ”
- The circles are drawn on the weekly chart this week instead of the monthly, so take a look at them and hopefully you notice the similarities…
- Based on how the weekly candle closed this week, I doubt price will continue moving up to the 1.55/1.56 region that I mentioned last week.
- In addition, price is a major decision point right now (weekly S/R level). So, depending on which direction price goes, it will dictate the short term directionality.
- However, keep in mind though, the long term forecast is still down. So even if price goes up short term, it’s simply delaying the eventual fall in price.
Until next week, Good Luck Trading!