Hello Traders! Welcome to the first FX Weekly Analysis of 2013!
I’m back after taking the past 6 weeks (of slow, holiday volume) off. For the newer readers just starting to read my analysis, DO NOT treat this as a signal service. It’s simply my “analysis/opinion” of the markets. I primarily look at USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Unlike other analysts, I don’t really provide entries, stop losses, take profits and the like. I merely “connect the dots” (literally) via drawing horizontal and diagonal lines. After annotating the charts, I will give a general “forecast” direction for where I think markets will move in the following week.
If you manage to profit based on my analysis, great. If you can’t, don’t blame me. Trading of any kind involves risks and to be good trader, you have to be able to make your own trade decisions, not follow someone else.
In a recent newsletter, I asked readers if they would like me to do video commentary or not. I sent out the mailer to both readers of this site and my school. I sent this out to over 500 people and only 2 out of the 5 replies I received, expressed interest. So I won’t be transitioning this to video format anytime soon. I may try it in the future to experiment but for the 2 people who replied, sorry, it seems no one else cares.
I’ve started trading Forex again, so I’ll be including disclaimers of my current positions (if any) at the time of writing these FX Weekly Analysis.
Disclaimer: I currently hold short positions of EUR/USD, so this may contribute to my bias for this week’s FX analysis.
Colour Code Legend for Charts:
- Black = Monthly
- Magenta = Weekly
- Aqua = Daily
- Red = H4
- Blue = Fib lines
Commentary / Technical Forecasts
All pairs are correlated with EUR/USD, which has the strongest down signal of the 50% fib line retracement (which didn’t officially hit, price was about 20-30 pips away).
USD/CAD [Long]: This bounced off of support recently and looks to be forming an upward channel on the weekly chart. If it does go up and break the daily trend line, the weekly channel will be confirmed for future upward moves to come.
AUD/USD [Short]: Double top on the daily chart, not much else to say aside from that. It has to break back inside of the weekly trend line and break below the H4 upward trend line, in order to justify any move downwards.
EUR/USD [Short]: Biggest signal is (an ‘almost’ bounce off of) the 50% fib line, which can be clearly seen from the weekly chart. In addition, H4 shows a double top as well. On the way down, we have 2 support levels to break through and 2 target trend lines to get to (as illustrated on the H4 chart).
GBP/USD [Short]: Symmetrical triangle + resistance level played out a few weeks ago, we’re just continuing that move right now. It just broke the daily upward trend line yesterday, so that signals downward movement. On the downside, we’re targeting the monthly trend line (bottom of the triangle). If this breaks, then it’s a long way down…
PS: I stopped giving a shit about pullbacks, don’t be surprised if they happen even if I don’t explicitly mention it. In addition for the new people, a “win” for my forecasts is if the closing price of the week is more than 25 pips in the direction of the forecast when compared to the previous week. This is why I do my forecasts on Saturday when the markets are closed, so there aren’t any discrepancies with prices.
Until next week, Good Luck Trading!