Hello Traders!
Welcome back to another week of FX Analysis!
Monthly Chart
Weekly Chart
Daily Chart
H4 Chart
Commentary / Technical Forecast
USD/CAD [Long]: This week’s action was the “retrace” part after breaking the long term daily aqua trend line. Really nice H4 pinbar formed on Friday after bouncing off of the daily trend line. Not even sure why it spiked down that far, US employment data beat Canadian data by a lot too. So USD/CAD poised to continue moving up and with any luck, there will be enough momentum to break that magenta trend line.
AUD/USD [Long (?)]: Not sure about this one (note the ? in brackets), it broke the H4 downward trend line. Also, prior to NFP release, there was an ascending triangle on smaller timeframes as well. So, this has a possibility to break to the upside but I’m not sure. In case you’re wondering if I’ve gone nuts or not, refer back to Oct 21st forecast results. That week and the week before, I commented that markets were weird which is why I didn’t forecast that week. But the results of Oct 21st is basically what I’m forecasting for next week. (Long on USD/CAD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD while short on EUR/USD)
EUR/USD [Short]: This continues to make lower low’s and high’s, so this is probably going to continue down. Add on the fact that NFP on Friday helped break the upward short term H4 trend line as well. I’m expecting some type of retrace prior to another drop to test the old trend line / resistance level. (Refer to H4 chart to see the retrace or it can just continue down from here)
GBP/USD [Long (?)]: This didn’t make a lower low yet, so technically the chart isn’t “complete”. Regardless, there’s a possibility of a head and shoulder forming assuming the current support / neckline holds. So price would go back up to the previous high around Oct 23rd. (This is drawn on the H4 chart by the way). I’m unsure this week since this is a 50/50 zone right now because there’s a possibility of support breaking as well. If it does break then price will likely go down to test the support level below.
Until next week, Good Luck Trading!
Brian