Welcome back to another week of FX Analysis!
Commentary / Technical Forecasts
USD/CAD [Long]: Guess the employment data retrace from last week wasn’t good enough. So markets went down again this week to test the pinbar / 61.8 fib level from before. By the end of yesterday’s session, price returned to where it started at the beginning of the week.Going forwards, it looks like USD/CAD has formed a symmetrical triangle so price is “undecided” for now. But correlating with the other pairs, I’m still continuing to forecast long. The only way for this to go down is if it breaks the current upward H4 trend line.
AUD/USD [Short]: Looking at last week’s charts with the old trend lines, this looked like it would’ve continued down. But given what happened this week, I redrew the lower daily trend line and noticed I left out another possible trend line. If I had drawn this, I might’ve forecast long instead of short. Because if you’ll notice on the H4 chart, the lower daily trend line was drawn based on low’s from way back to last week’s low’s so it didn’t even include anything from this week. Going forwards, this is coming up on the upper daily trend line for a possible bounce down. The only way for this to go up is if it breaks the upper daily trend line instead of bouncing down.
EUR/USD [Short]: Well, I was totally wrong on this one, there’s no possible explanation to save my ass here lol. Last week price bounced on the 61.8 fib level which coincided with the upward daily trend line. This bounce broke the short term downward trend line (which I erased, go look at last week’s charts). So I thought that it would continue in it’s current trajectory.
EDIT: At the time of making the initial post, I was forecasting short on this pair and I still am. But I uploaded an updated H4 chart for EUR/USD with a new black trend line. You’ll notice this downward trend line is from the previous high’s (excluding the first initial high) and price broke this last week (close to where the previous trend line was). BUT NOW, this week’s price action bounced upward from the cross of the black downward trend line and the red upward trend line. So there’s a chance (there always is lol) price is leaning towards upward pressure. However based on the current levels, price looks to be contained within a symmetrical triangle and could bounce down from the downward H4 trend line. This trend line has to hold price down, otherwise the previous “update” black trend line theory might take effect.
GBP/USD [Short]: From last week’s price action stand point, it looked like it was going down and it did… but I didn’t choose to forecast it lol. Based on current price action, depending on which downward trend line is in effect, price might bounce down immediately or continue trending upwards for a little bit more before bouncing down. If the former takes place, my forecast will be good but if the latter takes place, then my forecast depends on the speed of the price action. If price goes up then bounces down slowly, then I’ll be screwed. So, price has to go up fast and bounce down immediately as per my trajectory. Like AUD/USD and EUR/USD, the only way for this to go up is to break the current upper downward trend lines.
Until Next Week, Good Luck Trading!