I’m going to be honest, I haven’t even looked at the FOMC minutes or NFP data yet. So 100%, the forecasts this week is all technical analysis. But I’m guessing the FOMC is when we spiked on Thursday and NFP was yesterday, so these two messed up my forecasts this week resulting in the 33% ratio.
Notice how both USD/CAD and AUD/USD dropped this week, which is weird…. Also this week’s forecast has a correlation contradiction with EUR/USD but apparently that’s what the chart is telling me….
Commentary / Technical Forecasts
USD/CAD [Long]: This is a 61.8 Fib level bounce play. I’ve circled the fib level on the chart and drawn the fib lines. Yes, it did break the upward channel with the FOMC minutes and employment data. So basic price action would say this is going to continue moving down. But fib level bounce shows some upward momentum can be had in the coming weeks. In addition, if you consider the monthly pinbar from last month’s candle. This drop can be viewed as the retrace and is now going up again. So monthly pinbar + fib levels show more upward momentum than the downward movement from basic price action.
AUD/USD [Short]: It broke the previous downward channel and now is within a steeper downward channel. You can see when price came up to the top downward trend line (red), it bounced down exactly where the old bottom downward trend line (aqua) extended to. So the old channel lines provided resistance for this new downward channel. Good signs altogether combined with lower high’s and lower low’s, basic price action says this is going to continue going down.
EUR/USD [Long]: This is the correlation contradiction trade this week compared to the other 2 pairs. Like USD/CAD, this also had a 61.8 fib level bounce, which also coincided with the upward channel line (aqua). In addition, price action shows higher high’s and higher low’s indicating possible upward movement. So it looks like price is resuming it’s original move within the bigger (aqua) upward channel.
GBP/USD [Unsure]: Although price action is starting to show lower high’s and lower low’s. I’m still overall unsure since price is still within the tight range it’s been in for the past several weeks.
Until next week, Good Luck Trading!