I finally finished marking the midterms so now I can finally get started on this week’s FX analysis! Trying my best to finish in time before pre-market opens (3pm EST on Oanda). It seems really uncertain right now in the markets, equities are near key levels or were near the last couple weeks anyways. I’m still doing conditions and I’ll justify them with my reasoning to determine if they win/lose the following week.
Commentary / Technical Forecasts
The bounce this week on all the X/USD pairs came from news release (which I don’t follow). Each X/USD pair will explain how the bounce affects potential pattern formations.
USD/CAD [Long (C)]: Symmetrical triangle still in play as seen on the H4, overall choppy week. been stuck down on the lower TL for a while now, looking to bounce up to the upper TL to see what happens. This pair has been choppy the whole year so far stuck around parity. It has to hold the lower TL to stay long otherwise if that breaks, then we’re going down.
AUD/USD [Short (C)]: The bounce stops the reversing trend bounce off the monthly TL and moves this back into the flag formation that I was talking about last week. Conditions are now changed and is now based on WTF happens with the flag, it could continue going up and try to reach up to the monthly TL again or it can break and go down.
EUR/USD [Short (C)]: Should still be on it’s way down, daily chart doesn’t show anything too bullish yet. similar to AUD/USD except the flagpole isn’t as prominent. Although, H4 downward TL is broken. Conditions depend on the daily resistance level that’s coming up and a few more levels can be drawn on H4 but I didn’t bother to draw them. We’ll see what happens this week.
GBP/USD [Short (C)]: Bounce was semi expected since I said last week that going down, we’d have to break the daily TL first. Given news as a catalyst, that helped support and now it’s going back to meet the monthly TL. Conditions depend on the reaction of the monthly TL and whether or not that’s broken. Alternatively, it could hold and this breaks down towards the same daily TL to see if it breaks the second time around.
Until next week, Good Luck Trading!