Pretty fucked up action this week with all the default/debt news floating around, cold feet traders not sure what to do or where to put their money. Leading to non-correlating pairs.
Results from this week + Updated record
Will start with the usual 5 charts followed by some pattern formations on 3 of the pairs.
Mixed – Monthly Chart
Mixed – Weekly Chart
Mixed – Daily Chart
Mixed – H4 Chart
Mixed – H1 Chart
AUD/USD – H1 Chart, Downward Channel
GBP/USD – H1 Chart, Donward Channel
EUR/USD – H1 Chart, Bearish Flag
Commentary on this week’s price action
USD/CAD – This is the only pair with a fucked up monthly candle, currently has a pinbar forming, the rest of them have a solid red bar with a small wick. Pretty messed up week, rejection off parity, still above the monthly low though, so we’ll see what happens going forward.
AUD/USD – This is 1 of the 2 winners this week, showed that USD strength was good.
GBP/USD – This is 1 of the 2 winners this week, showed that USD strength was good.
EUR/USD – Although USD strength showed for AUD and GBP, EUR was still in the iffy mindset and didn’t perform that well. But the forecasts below still show the strength of USD to continue soon.
EUR/GBP – This bounced off the monthly TL pretty nicely (on the daily chart). This shows why drawing TLs on diff timeframes is weird because they don’t line up properly. Monthly shows it crossed the TL already, but daily shows it bounced up.
EUR/JPY – Broke the channel line last week, but even this week, it stay below my entry and would’ve been a won if not for the late week breakout. Closed below the weekly support level though, and that line acted as resistance going up.
Technical Forecasts
Overall, lots of euro turmoil right now, so when one power house is struggling, the world turns to the other, which in this case is USD. Whenever EUR weakens, USD gains strength. The forex market is all about relative strength.
USD/CAD [Long] -Bullish flag should still be in play, kind of weird how this week played out given the non-correlated trading. Bull flags normally just shoot up, I guess USD/CAD decided to consolidate some more before moving up. Parity is the strongest psychological barrier to break, once we get above that, we can certainly keep going up.
AUD/USD [Short] – Downward channel formed, following USD strength
GBP/USD [ Short] – Downward channel formed, following USD strength
EUR/USD [Short] – Bearish flag formation, huge drop = flag pole + this week’s uptrend which is a shallow TL, it’s not like it just shot back up the same speed it went down, if that were the case. We’d be looking for a double top or bottom, something like that. But, this short run up = good formation for the flag part of the pattern formation.
EUR/GBP [Short] – Didn’t draw it but if you look on the daily or H4, there’s a bearish divergence on the pair, so supported continuation short given the overall euro weakness right now, the TL shouldn’t hold.
EUR/JPY [Short] – Still inside the downward channel, so just correlating this pair with the other pairs to go short.