October 1st, 2011 – FX Weekly Analysis « Financial Trading Journal

Another fucked up week of trading, consolidation all the way till Friday, when things finally moved out of the range. So as stated in the post below with my live trades, I was pissed the fuck off on Friday for exiting my lots too early, I didn’t think it’d actually break out. Thought it was going to range some more. Oh well, onwards and upwards, as my friend Dave says, trading opportunities are like busse, they come and go, if you miss one, catch the next one, don’t chase or look for it!

Anyways, onto the analysis, a thought is currently lingering in my mind to completely drop GBP/USD and EUR/JPY, then just focus on USD/CAD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD; being the 3 pairs that I currently trade, so my focus is on them.

Another note for this week’s forecast, it’s all conditional forecasts, meaning they’re all given a criteria for breaking out in their respective directions. This is not unlike my “unsure” forecasts in which case, I have no idea at all. The forecasts that I have written down on the excel spreadsheet are based on the whole market mentality right now. The conditions are just probability/pattern trading on my part.

This week’s results then the updated forecasts record

Mixed – Monthly Chart

Mixed – Weekly Chart

Mixed – Daily Chart

Mixed – H4 Chart

Mixed – H1 Chart

Commentary on this week’s price action

USD/CAD – On higher TF charts, everything is much clearer than lower TF for trading… Bullish flag took place again, lift off on Friday, broke the downward monthly TL as well.

AUD/USD – Overall, consolidation week, nothing much to comment on, you would’ve had opportunities to trade up or down all week long.

GBP/USD -WTF? First I dropped EUR/GBP because it was fucking with my vibe, now GBP/USD fucked with my vibe this week too. Possible reasoning, bottom of the channel, so a bounce was imminent. Big wicks on the top of daily candles towards the end of the week as well. Will comment more in the forecasts below.

EUR/USD – Nothing to say, honestly have nothing to blab about.

EUR/JPY – Neligible, nothing to talk about… Seriously thinking of removing this pair from my forecast since I don’t pay attention to the JPY at all.

Technical Forecasts

CONDITONS: EURX is on support levels while USDX is approaching resistance levels. Those two are completely opposite areas, so if it bounces off both, that will reverse all my signals despite the pattern formations.

USD/CAD [Long (C)] – Broke the downward monthly TL and didn’t look back, so clearly bullish, any down moves from here on out will be using the monthly TL as support.

AUD/USD [Short – (C)] – Bearish flag formation starting to break out

GBP/USD [Short – (C)] – Bearish flag forming

EUR/USD [Short – (C)] – Huge downward momentum, whole market is shorting this pair. But, a few things point up, as in the conditions above + EUR/USD on weekly support TL + my H4 TL pattern plays. See the additional pictures for clarification. Drawing an H4 TL on each trend, once it breaks the TL, it’ll come back down to touch the TL then continue in the breaking direction. On this current trend, EUR/USD broke the downward TL at the beginning of the week and now we’re back down to the TL, looking for a bounce up now and make a new trend.

EUR/JPY [Short – (C)] – This is just correlating again, following the downward channel and EUR/USD as well, but it could bounce because it’s sitting on the lower TL of the channel.