Don’t really have any status updates to state as I said most of it in the Part 2 analysis posted 2 days ago. Monthly forecasts will no longer be done. It’ll just be weekly FX analysis from now on. I’m thinking of cutting H1 charts out of it as well, because WTF does H1 have to do with the week. Only reason why I like to show H1 sometimes is to show how it closed on Friday IF it’s near a S/R or TL, like AUD/USD is right now, it’s sitting on the weekly and daily TL.
Here is the updated results for this week’s forecast along with next week’s forecast.
Mixed – Monthly Chart
Mixed – Weekly Chart
Mixed – Daily Chart
Mixed – H4 Chart
Mixed – H1 Chart
Commentary on this week’s Price Action
USD/CAD – Like AUD/USD, not sure if it USD was strengthening or not. Consolidated for most of the week until Friday when it bounced off the bottom TL of the flag. I googled flag formations and it appeared that I drew them wrong previously, it’s a flag pole with the flag formed using 2 parallel lines as the flag, not a pennant which I previously drew.
AUD/USD – Always surprising me, USD strengthened this week or.. maybe it was just EUR weakening, not sure. Might’ve been EUR since all the EURs went down. But this one didn’t follow suit, I need to start figuring out the fundamentals on Australia’s economy to figure out the relationship with USD and the world.
GBP/USD – This pair as seen with the 3 EUR pairs all tanked thru out the week.
EUR/USD – Finally broke the upward TL on H4, forming a new downward TL. So going to be riding this down until it breaks the TL or meets some heavy support/demand. Which will likely be the case given the past monthly candles.
EUR/GBP – I thought the upward channel would be formed, which it did except it’s just a little wider than anticipated. I should’ve followed previous channel formations. After breaking up, it pulled back to where it currently is, which is still higher than the low.
EUR/JPY – Surprising again, I guess the middle TL that I previously drew is irrelevant now. Also, like EUR/USD the H4 upward TL is broken and new downward TL formed.
Both EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY should’ve just been correlated with EUR/USD and followed the same direction, if not EUR/GBP then at least EUR/JPY shou
Technical Forecast
USD/CAD [Long] – Given that I’ve drawn the proper bullish flag formation now, I like this going long especially after Friday’s breakout off the bottom TL of the flag.
AUD/USD [Unsure] – It’s sitting on weekly and daily TL right now, so I’m not sure and don’t want to forecast this pair this week.
GBP/USD [Short] – Continuing the previous trend and we’re going down, correlating play this week.
EUR/USD [Short] – Following the newly formed H4 downward TL until it breaks.
EUR/GBP [Long] – This is one EUR pair that likes to go opposite, and with the previous bounces, this should go up, might go down to support levels though that’s always a possibility.
EUR/JPY [Short] – Following the newly formed H4 downward TL until it breaks. Or at least till we get to the bottom daily TL of this downward channel and either bounce or hug it.
That’s all for this week, it’s a long weekend by the way. Monday is Labour Day for the US and Canada so US and CAD banks will be closed + markets are closed on Monday in North America. So I wouldn’t expect any good trending till Tuesday. Expect some sideways or manipulated bullshit until the holiday is over. But once the week starts, take note that everyone is coming back this week. Since the summer holidays are over, I’d expect liquidity to increase in the coming months since all those hedge fund managers are back from vacation and ready to hit it off. Also, last quarter of the year usually results in people trying to end their year in a profit. So expect aggressive plays.